The Federal Chancellor sees no reason to apologize. His vague statement from last week about migration as a problem in the „cityscape“ triggered a large, partly very outraged response. This week, Merz doubled down: „Everyone confirms that this is a problem, especially after dark.“

Merz offers no explanation of what he regards as the problem. The Chancellor remains vague, referring to young women. „Just ask your daughters what I might have meant by that,“ he advises, suspecting that they would give a „clear and unambiguous“ answer. The message conveyed between the lines: Women, especially young women, are less safe today than in the past, and according to the Federal Chancellor‘s assessment, this has to do with migration.

Is that so? And if so, why? What we really know about the safety of women and girls in Germany – a look at the facts.

Danger 1: Sexual Offenses on the Street, in Parks, in Public Squares

At the end of November 2023, verdicts were handed down in the Hamburg Regional Court‘s Major Criminal Chamber against nine defendants, all juvenile sentences. The young men had raped a 15-year-old girl in bushes in the city park, while other young people were celebrating on the lawn in front of them. The court deliberated behind closed doors for almost 70 days. The case caused great public attention because it was particularly brutal, but also because it concerned a girl who, heavily intoxicated, had apparently barely resisted. And the court still had to prove that the men abused her.

Six of those convicted were born in Hamburg, the others came from Libya, Iran, Egypt, and Poland. The case fuels a debate about if migrants and foreigners also make life more unsafe for women in Germany. Especially the „cityscape,“ as the Federal Chancellor now says.

Since New Year‘s Eve in Cologne in 2015, there has been high vigilance regarding assaults on women by young refugees. At that time, numerous young women were harassed, some attacked – crime by foreigners, it is a permanent topic. Also for politics.

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After 2016, there was an increase in collectively committed sexual offenses against women, so-called „gang rapes.“ Since then, the number of cases has remained relatively stable each year, rising only slightly at most, but still at around 700 cases. The number of convictions is rising slightly and sits between 400 and 500 per year. But these are only cases that become known to security authorities. Especially with sex crimes, much remains hidden, as victims shy away from reporting out of shame.

Also striking is the disproportionately high share of non-German suspects, ranging – depending on the statistics – between 40 and 50 percent. However, some explanations are needed so that the numbers don‘t lead to simple conclusions: Debates like „MeToo“ in the film industry keep attention on the topic high. More women may be reporting violence against them as a result, feeling encouraged.

Registered sex crimes in Germany are also rising. In 2023, police reported 52,330 female victims, an increase of just over six percent from the previous year. Two aspects stand out: 51 percent of female victims are under 18. More than a quarter of suspects are under 21 years old. Perpetrators are getting younger – this is also what investigators in police stations and criminal investigation offices tell our editors during research. Some added that the violence is increasing in severity.

This is noteworthy because if you look at violent crime overall in Germany, the country became steadily safer for many years. In the nineties, case numbers rose, peaked in 2007 – and then fell. However, the trend has been reversing since roughly 2021. Officially registered violence is growing again, quickly approaching record levels. Men are usually perpetrators, men are often also the victims. But violence on the street also affects women.

Woman on night city street background.
At night and alone: time and again, women report feeling unsafe in Germany. Why is that?© iStock | iiievgeniy

Many criminologists attribute the recent increase to the consequences of the pandemic. Young people were isolated, fear about the future grew, social connections at school were cut. Violence against women, according to this thesis, also increases when partners are stuck at home during lockdown.

In police statistics, young suspects from Syria, Afghanistan, or Algeria stand out disproportionately – especially in so-called „street crime,“ i.e., thefts and assaults on streets and squares. What researchers and police officers confirm is that the concern is not about young people in general, but about a small group of young people who are losing more and more inhibitions. This applies to young Germans as well as foreigners.

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Marina Hackenbroch, BKA investigator and deputy chairwoman of the Federation of German Detectives, says: „There are groups of young refugees who are disproportionately involved in criminal offenses – including violent crimes.“ She adds: „Often other refugees or refugee women themselves are the ones affected.“

In addition, several central factors influence the proportion of refugees in crime statistics: The group has grown, but mainly young men are coming. That is, people who are more likely to commit crimes anyway. In addition, people who are perceived as foreigners are more likely to be reported and more likely to be checked by police. Add to this that many young asylum seekers live in cramped accommodations, are not allowed to work, have experienced violence during their flight and in their homeland. For criminal psychologists, these are essential risks for people committing crimes. Violence is often learned – for some perpetrators from childhood on, for example when parents hit them.

Criminal investigators like Hackenbroch point out regarding the background of asylum seekers: „Some come from societies where patriarchal structures are deeply rooted – this influences how they see women and how they behave.“

Masculinity norms are a „relevant influencing factor,“ says criminologist Dirk Baier, especially with sexual violence. However, he is cautious about speaking of „cultural factors,“ since male power and traditional norms can be found in all groups.

BKA investigator Hackenbroch also says that violence against women is not „imported.“ „It has always been part of German society and has existed here for centuries, in families, relationships, and institutions.“ It‘s not about origin, „but about masculinity, power, and how to deal with both,“ according to Hackenbroch. The criminal investigator wishes for „stable financing of women‘s shelters, mandatory perpetrator work, training for police and judiciary, and social education about power, control, and violence.“

Criminologist Baier refers to other numbers. 0.3 percent of women in Germany have experienced sexual abuse or rape in the past twelve months. In three-quarters of cases, the violence is committed by someone in their social environment i.e., in the family, among acquaintances, in sports clubs. From Baier‘s perspective, these numbers do not justify the narrative that it has become more unsafe for women in public spaces.

And yet, a sense of unease is growing among people in Germany. A feeling of insecurity – also among women. According to the Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap, in July 2024, four out of ten respondents said they no longer felt safe in public spaces. This coincides with other surveys: Migration is always one of the top concerns of Germans. In recent years, the country has taken in several million people seeking protection.

And yet fear of crime is also paradoxical: It is particularly high among older women – although statistically they run the least risk of becoming victims of assaults. Among young men, on average most affected by violence, fear is lowest. The feeling of insecurity is often detached from one‘s own experiences and risks – shaped, for example, by media reports. Long-term analyses have shown that foreigners are overrepresented in television and print coverage of crime — and that this overrepresentation of foreign suspects in German popular media is stronger than ever before.

However, sexual offenses affect women in the overwhelming majority of cases. Thus, it is also clear that the fear of becoming a victim of abuse is particularly strong in this group. There is nothing irrational about that.

Politics must take this growing feeling of insecurity seriously. At the same time, says researcher Baier, it walks a fine line in doing so. By talking extensively about how it has become increasingly unsafe in the cities, Chancellor Merz creates „precisely the feeling among people that it is becoming increasingly unsafe in the cities,“ according to Baier.

Danger 2: When One‘s Own Four Walls Become a Place of Violence

Zohra G. died on the street, in broad daylight. With thirteen stab wounds, her ex-husband ended the 31-year-old’s life. The two had come from Afghanistan together in 2020; in Germany, the mother of six children had separated from her violent husband. She bled to death at the crime scene in Berlin-Pankow.

Susann K. died in the hospital. The ex-partner of the 42-year-old had severely injured her with a knife in her Leipzig apartment. K. made it outside, but she did not survive the attack. The suspected perpetrator, Nick W., also severely injured their 10-year-old son.

Zohra G. and Susann K. are not isolated cases. The technical term for such crimes is femicide: the killing of women because they are women. There is no uniform definition of the term, which makes recording such cases difficult.

The Federal Criminal Police Office evaluates all intentional homicides in which the victims are female as femicides. In 2023, the most recent year for which a comprehensive situation report is available, almost one woman or girl died every day as a victim of gender-based violence. The authorities counted 938 relevant crimes against women that year; in 360 cases, the victims did not survive. Compared to the previous year, the number had risen by one percentage point.

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Femicides are often the final escalation in relationships marked by years of violence. According to the BKA situation report, 180,715 women and girls became victims of domestic violence in 2023. The suspects in almost 90 percent of cases were male. In both femicides and cases of domestic violence, both victims and suspects were predominantly German. But here too, non-German suspects are overrepresented at 31.8 percent in relation to their proportion of the total population of the country.

However, the crime scene is clear: one‘s own four walls, where a person should actually feel safe. Against this background, the German Women‘s Council criticizes these statements by the Federal Chancellor: „The most dangerous place for a woman in Germany is her own home, Mr. Federal Chancellor,“ wrote the umbrella organization of around 60 nationally active women‘s organizations on Instagram. The perpetrators have one thing in common: „They are men.“

Danger 3: Human Trafficking and Exploitation Also Affects Surrogate Mothers

Violence threatens women not only in their own four walls or on the street. Especially in the prostitution business, police and counseling centers warn of increasing human trafficking. Women – often from Eastern Europe – are driven to Germany, lured with false promises, but also with threats, blackmail, violence. The perpetrators exploit the distress – including the financial distress – of their female victims. In Germany, three cases of human trafficking are identified every day. This is the conclusion of a new report by the German Institute for Human Rights (DIM). The number of unreported cases is likely much higher.

According to the Federal Criminal Police Office, about one-third of victims are under 21 years old. Two-thirds of victims and suspects are non-German. The market for sexual services in Germany is large – but the women and the human traffickers are not from here.

Another special form of human trafficking specifically affects women: surrogacy. The market for children is lucrative, demand is high. In Germany, surrogacy is prohibited by law. But childless couples can commission agencies abroad. Even so, counseling centers report cases in which women and their bodies were exploited.

Danger 4: The „Digital Cityscape“ and Violence Against Women on the Internet

There is another area in which violence against women has been increasing for years: digital violence. Investigators and criminologists use this term to describe offenses such as cyberstalking, cybergrooming, and blackmail with intimate images.

Here too, the statistical recording of cases is difficult because it is not always recorded whether digital media played a role in the crimes. Nevertheless, the BKA sees a clear increase in case numbers here: While 7,466 female victims were counted in the „Digital Violence“ category in 2019, there were already 17,193 in 2023.

Overall, according to BKA information, women and girls account for 62.3 percent of victims in this area. In cases of coercion, threats and stalking, as well as in crimes where photos of victims‘ intimate areas are taken against their will, the proportion of German suspects was around 75 percent. In cases of digital violence that constitute sexual abuse of children and adolescents, this figure rises to 90 percent.

This article was originally written and published on the 21st of October in German. It was translated in English with the use of Artificial Intelligence.