One month before the election to the Berlin House of Representatives, a poll puts the Left Party in the lead. In a survey by the polling institute Forsa for the news portal “t-online”, the Left, with its lead candidate Elif Eralp, stands at 22 percent. The CDU and AfD are tied for second place with 18 percent each. The Greens stand at 16 percent, while the SPD comes in at 12 percent.

According to the poll, the BSW and FDP, with 4 and 3 percent respectively, would not make it into the state parliament. Voters in Berlin will elect a new House of Representatives on September 20 and thus decide on the next state government. Berlin is currently governed by a coalition of the CDU and SPD.

Berlin’s Governing Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) is no longer running. He withdrew as lead candidate a few weeks ago following the controversy over his crisis management during the major power outage in January. Instead, the CDU is now sending Finance Senator Stefan Evers into the race.

Which coalitions could govern after the Berlin election?

Several institutes have recently published polls in which the CDU, the Left and the AfD alternated at the top. A week ago, for example, an Insa poll commissioned by the “Bild” newspaper put the CDU at 20 percent and the Left at 19 percent.

The new poll also suggests that no two-party coalition would have enough support to form a government. A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would therefore be conceivable – according to “t-online”, the most popular alliance in the poll – as would a coalition of the CDU, Greens and SPD.

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The lead candidates in the 2026 BVV elections in all Berlin districts: Here you can find the overviews for Treptow-Köpenick, Pankow, Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Reinickendorf, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Neukölln, Lichtenberg, Mitte, Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg, Spandau.

According to “t-online”, 1,535 people were surveyed for the poll between August 4 and 18. The results are representative, with a margin of error of plus/minus three percentage points.

Election polls are generally subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalties and more last-minute voting decisions make it more difficult for polling institutes to weight the data they collect. In principle, polls only reflect public opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election result.

This text was originally written and published on the 22nd of August in German. It was translated into English with the use of artificial intelligence (AI).