More and more baby boomers are retiring—leaving gaps in the workforce. These could be filled by skilled workers from abroad. But not everywhere, as the East-West divide is significant. Immigrant skilled workers do not want to live and work in the eastern German states; they prefer city-states and western Germany. This is the conclusion of a study by the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Cologne, whose summary report was made available to this editorial team in advance.

Craftspeople, care workers, judges: partly due to demographic change, Germany is desperately seeking skilled workers. Today, an estimated 500,000 positions are vacant. If current trends continue, this number could grow to around 770,000 by 2028. Immigration could help here. The IW calculates that without immigration, the share of people of working age (25 to 64) in the total population would fall to just under 50 percent by 2034.

Germany as an immigration country: one in four is from abroad

Germany has long been an immigration country: according to the IW, one in four people of working age has moved from abroad. For the economy, well-qualified skilled workers are particularly important. If one looks only at immigrants of working age with vocational or academic qualifications, the total comes to 6.25 million. According to the IW, this corresponds to nearly 18 percent of all people with such qualifications and 14 percent of the total population in this age group.

However, regional differences are significant. Among skilled workers in Berlin, Bremen, and Hamburg, about one in four was not born in Germany; in Hesse and Baden-Württemberg, more than one in five. In eastern German states, however, the share of immigrants among skilled workers is below nine percent. At the same time, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) polls between 34 and 39 percent in the five eastern federal states.

“Confirmed right-wing extremist”: the AfD in eastern Germany

The AfD is classified differently across Germany. In Lower Saxony, Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia, its regional branches are classified as “confirmed right-wing extremist.” Other regional branches are still monitored as suspected cases. At the federal level, the domestic intelligence service also classified the party as “confirmed right-wing extremist,” but this assessment has been temporarily suspended following a legal challenge.

“Eastern Germany faces particular challenges in dealing with the shortage of skilled workers due to demographic change,” said the Federal Government’s Commissioner for Eastern Germany, Elisabeth Kaiser. “For positive development in eastern Germany, we also depend on both domestic and foreign migration.” This requires a local culture of openness. However, she warned: “The actions of populist parties that fuel skepticism toward coexistence with immigrants pose a danger.” Kaiser referred to surveys showing that while many people are dissatisfied with how democracy is functioning, they still consider it the best form of government. “That is something we can build on.”

Crafts sector president: we depend on immigrants

Without immigrant skilled workers, the already strained situation in the crafts sector would further worsen. Around 200,000 positions are currently vacant. “Only qualified immigration will make it possible to sustainably secure the skilled workforce,” said Jörg Dittrich, President of the Central Association of German Crafts (ZDH). Nearly one-sixth of all trainees in the crafts sector have foreign citizenship. Therefore, both policymakers and local communities must do their best to attract and retain foreign skilled workers. “What matters is genuine openness and an environment that enables and promotes integration. Anyone who comes here to work and contribute must feel welcome—both in the workplace and in society,” said Dittrich, himself a master roofer in Dresden.

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Study author Wido Geis-Thöne also points to structural differences between eastern and western Germany. After reunification, the economy in eastern Germany declined sharply. In addition, large companies—attractive employers for immigrant skilled workers—are less common in the east. Only in recent years, due to demographic change, have labor shortages emerged there, creating demand for workers from abroad. “A large part of the difference compared to the west goes back to a time when the AfD did not yet exist, but right-wing ideas and parties certainly did, and that naturally works against a welcoming culture and makes the east less attractive to immigrants,” the IW expert said.

Immigrant skilled workers, however, feel more comfortable where living and working conditions are more attractive, he concludes. He adds: “This, in turn, is largely a question of the welcoming culture and openness of the population. This is particularly important in places where few skilled workers from abroad have lived so far.”

This article was originally written and published on the 23rd of April in German. It was translated in English with the use of Artificial Intelligence.