On Monday, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz put forward a figure at a press conference with Syrian transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa: 80 percent of Syrians in Germany should return to their home country within the next three years — that, according to him, is what al-Sharaa wants. The wording was somewhat muddled, and it sounded as though Merz himself was not entirely opposed to the idea. The next day, efforts were underway at the Chancellery to contain the damage.

The reaction was intense: hundreds of thousands of people in Germany would be affected. One day later, the chancellor tried to contain the headlines. His press office issued a clarification: this was not his proposal. “The figure of 80 percent returnees within three years was mentioned by the Syrian president,” Merz (CDU) now states. “We have taken note of this figure, but we are aware of the magnitude of the task.” A German-Syrian action plan is intended, among other things, to promote the return and reintegration of Syrian citizens into a country largely destroyed by civil war.

Close to one million Syrians have come to Germany in recent years. According to the Central Register of Foreigners (AZR), as of the end of February, a total of 930,112 Syrian nationals were recorded as residing in Germany. How likely is it that they will return — voluntarily or not? And what would that mean for Germany? Here’s what you need to know now:

What do asylum figures show?

Syrians are now granted protection in Germany only in exceptional cases. This is shown by a look at the statistics from the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). In January and February, only nine percent of asylum seekers were granted protection status. By comparison, the rate for Afghans is almost 80 percent; people from Turkey and Iraq are also more likely to receive asylum in Germany than those from Syria. This was different in the past: when dictator Assad was still in power, the protection rate for Syrians was well above 90 percent for many years.

However, there is a major caveat: at the moment, the BAMF is only making decisions on the protection status of young men who fled to Germany alone and are also Sunnis. In other words, people who, according to the BAMF, have little to fear under the new regime in Syria. The Federal Office is currently not making asylum decisions for minorities such as Christians or Alawites, nor for families and women. This also means that the protection rate is likely to rise significantly again.

The number of people from Syria seeking protection in Germany is declining significantly. In 2025, just over 23,000 of them submitted an initial asylum application. In 2024, it was almost 80,000, and in 2023 over 100,000. However, hundreds of thousands of Syrians already have protection status in Germany. For them to leave or be deported, their asylum status must be revoked. The BAMF is responsible for this. According to information from this editorial team, the office expects around 560,000 proceedings — meaning Syrians whose protection status will be re-examined.

This is an enormous number of cases that will be hard to manage even with additional staff at the Federal Office. At the same time, revocation procedures can also be handled in writing. And the BAMF currently still has a reserve of asylum decision-makers working through old cases, and the office could reassign staff.

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However, if the Federal Office decides that a Syrian loses protection status and must leave, they can appeal. Even now, many administrative courts are heavily burdened with asylum cases; decisions take between several months and several years, depending on the federal state.

At the same time, the situation in Syria has become more stable — this is also reflected in BAMF data. Before Christmas, a team from the Federal Office traveled to Syria. The assessment of the trip was described as “mixed.” However, there is said to be a “sense of new beginnings” in the country.

However, the situation after Assad’s fall remains uncertain and chaotic. There have been repeated violent attacks against certain population groups, including Druze, Alawites, and Christians. Terrorist groups such as the “Islamic State” are still active in the region, although significantly weakened. The German Foreign Office advises against travel to the country and describes the security situation as “tense”; the embassy is closed to visitors.

Why have there been only a few deportations so far?

The federal government primarily wants to deport criminals — including to Syria. So far, this has only happened in a few cases. In January, Federal Interior Minister Dobrindt reported that “another” criminal had been deported to Syria on a scheduled flight to Damascus. However, due to the war between Iran and Israel and the United States, there are currently no flights to the region.

At present, of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians in Germany, only about 900 are required to leave and have no temporary suspension of deportation, meaning they can be deported — provided that Syrian authorities accept them. Experience with Afghanistan shows that Germany needs patience here.

In response to an inquiry, the Federal Ministry of the Interior states that between 2015 and 2024, a total of 246,355 Syrian nationals were naturalized in Germany. Data for 2025 will follow in June. These people are German citizens and can no longer be deported.

There is another factor often overlooked in the heated debate about deportations: nearly 6,000 Syrians applied for voluntary return in 2025. The BAMF offers financial assistance to people who want to start anew in their home country.

How often do Syrians commit crimes?

Criminals are a priority for deportation. Syrians make up the largest group among foreign suspects in Germany. This is not surprising, as they are also the largest group of immigrants — after Ukrainians. Syrians are also frequently victims of crime themselves and top this statistic as well.

Security authorities are concerned about growing violence among young Syrians. Police officers report that perpetrators frequently use knives. Violent offenders with knives — this is a trend also increasing among other young people. Individual Syrians who become radicalized are monitored by intelligence services. Several suspected Islamist attacks involving Syrians have been prevented in recent years. In August 2024, authorities were too late: an IS supporter killed several people with a knife at a city festival in Solingen.

How many Syrians are working?

Jalal Abo Alnaaj fled to Germany in 2021 and lives in Braunschweig. He has managed to build a life in safety. He works full-time as a cook in an Italian restaurant, with a permanent contract. He pays taxes, rent, and health insurance. “For about two years now, I have not received a single cent from the state — no citizen’s benefit, no social assistance, nothing,” he emphasizes.

However, what sounds like successful integration is, for the 49-year-old, a life of fear and uncertainty. In 2022, the Federal Office rejected his asylum application because he comes from Damascus, which the authority considers safe.

His lawyer appealed, and his deportation is currently suspended. He was granted a temporary suspension of deportation, which must be renewed annually. “I am like someone who has entered a tunnel with no end,” he says. “Every tunnel has a light at the end. But the tunnel I was put into has no light and no end. It is as if I have been placed in the middle of nowhere.”

Alnaaj says he cannot understand the statements made by Chancellor Merz. Many Syrians work — as bus drivers, care workers, and medical staff. “This return policy will have negative consequences for the labor market and the German economy,” he says. “Who will fill this gap?”

According to data from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the employment rate among Syrians of working age is 48 percent — and it increases the longer people stay. In 2024, 60 percent of those who arrived in 2015 were employed and another five percent were self-employed.

In addition, those who have since been naturalized are no longer counted in this statistic. Since the ability to support oneself is usually a requirement for naturalization, their employment rate is likely comparatively high, says IAB labor market researcher Yuliya Kosyakova.

Syrian workers are overrepresented in sectors considered critical during the pandemic and in shortage occupations where skilled labor is particularly scarce.

According to Kosyakova, the employment rate is not higher partly because Syrian women are less likely to be employed than Syrian men. This is partly due to childcare responsibilities, but also because many women previously worked in education and healthcare in Syria. Re-entering these fields in Germany requires higher language and formal qualifications.

What does this mean for the German economy?

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) fears negative consequences for the labor market and economic growth if a large proportion of Syrian refugees were to leave the country. “If 80 percent of Syrian refugees actually return to their home country, this will significantly impact the German labor market,” said labor market expert Angelina Hackmann from DIW. Many Syrians work in shortage occupations and critical sectors. “The loss of these workers would significantly worsen the shortage of skilled labor in many sectors — for example in transport and logistics, certain production areas, or healthcare.”

A declining labor force participation rate would also affect growth, Hackmann says. “The current slight recovery of the German economy could be significantly slowed down.”

The German Association of Cities therefore expects the federal government to allow Syrian workers to remain even if the situation in their home country improves. The association assumes “that the federal government will find a regulation under which people who fled from Syria may remain in Germany regardless of the situation in their home country, provided they are needed as skilled workers and are, of course, well integrated,” said Managing Director Christian Schuchardt. Given the demographic structure, this would make economic sense. “This would give both the affected Syrians and the companies greater planning security.”

This article was originally written and published on the 1st of April in German. It was translated in English with the use of Artificial Intelligence.